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Announcement of methodological changes to the Autism Waiting Time Statistics

Methodological change

From the September 2023 publication onwards, the methodology used for the specified measures below within the Autism Waiting Time Statistics will include the following change.

We have changed the way that a referral for ‘suspected autism’ is counted as open.  Previously, open and close dates in the latest submitted version of a referral were used to determine which months the referral is counted as open. Data submitted to MHSDS includes a row of data for each referral for each unique month that the referral is open. After consulting with providers and carrying out some exploratory analysis into how effective providers are at closing referrals in the system and looking into why referrals remain open for a long period of time, we have agreed to implement a change in the logic of how we calculate open referrals in the publication. The new methodology will only count the referrals as open in the months when a row of data has been submitted or flowed. This means we can be sure that the referrals that are flowed each month are definitely active and we can be confident that this number of open referrals provides a more accurate view of this.

This methodology for counting open referrals is consistently used in other MHSDS publications as providers will consistently stop flowing referral records once they have ended but do not always update the closed date in the referral record. This change will mean that we are able to provide a more accurate view of the number of people we know are on a waiting list for an autism diagnostic assessment than previously.

The change affects the following measures (see below), the largest change is by around 20-37% decrease at a national level for all age patients each month. All other metrics remain unchanged. Whilst this change will impact the number of open referrals it does not alter the overall increasing trend that is seen in the number of people with an open referral for suspected autism. The impact of this change at provider level will vary and will depend on how effective the organisation has been at closing referrals in the system appropriately and flowing the referral closed date.


Measures

The revised methodology affects the below measures we publish from September 2023.

Measure reference number Measure name 
ASD11 Number of open referrals by month within the reporting period
ASD11a Number of open "suspected autism" referrals for those aged 0 to 17 in the month is a new metric. This metric is the same as ASD11 but limited to people aged under 18 at time of referral
ASD11b Number of open "suspected autism" referrals for those aged 18 and over in the month is a new metric. This metric is the same as ASD11 but limited to people aged 18 and over at time of referral.
ASD14 Number of open referrals that do not appear in any subsequent month by month within the reporting period
ASD14a Number of open, "suspected autism" referrals for those aged 0 to 17 in the month that do not appear in any subsequent month whether discharged or not is a new metric. This metric is the same as ASD14 but limited to people aged under 18 at time of referral.
ASD14b Number of open, "suspected autism" referrals for those aged 18 and over in the month that do not appear in any subsequent month whether discharged or not is a new metric. This metric is the same as ASD14 but limited to people aged 18 and over at time of referral.
ASD16 Number of patients with an open referral by month within the reporting period
ASD16b Number of patients aged 0 to 17 with an open "suspected autism" referral in the month is a new metric. This metric is the same as ASD16 but limited to people aged under 18 at time of referral
ASD16c Number of patients aged 0 to 17 with an open "suspected autism" referral in the month that has been open for at least 13 weeks is a new metric. This metric is the same as ASD16a but limited to people aged under 18 at time of referral.
ASD16d Number of patients aged 18 and over with an open "suspected autism" referral in the month is a new metric. This metric is the same as ASD16 but limited to people aged 18 and over at time of referral.
ASD16e Number of patients aged 18 and over with an open "suspected autism" referral in the month that has been open for at least 13 weeks is a new metric. This metric is the same as ASD16a but limited to people aged 18 and over at time of referral.
ASD18a Number of patients with an open 'suspected autism' referral in the month, that has been open for at least 13 weeks, receiving a first appointment after more than 13 weeks is a new metric. This new metric is a count of all unique patients with at least one open referral from ASD16a for which the time elapsed between referral date and care contact date is greater than 91 days (13 weeks).
ASD18b Number of patients with an open 'suspected autism' referral in the month, that has been open for at least 13 weeks, that have not had a care contact appointment recorded is a new metric. This new metric is a count of all unique patients with at least one open referral from ASD16a for which there has been no care contact recorded.
ASD18c Number of patients aged 0 to 17 with an open "suspected autism" referral in the month, that has been open for at least 13 weeks, receiving a first appointment in 13 weeks or less is a new metric. This metric is the same as ASD18 but limited to people aged under 18 at time of referral.
ASD18d  Number of patients aged 18 and over with an open "suspected autism" referral in the month, that has been open for at least 13 weeks, receiving a first appointment in 13 weeks or less is a new metric. This metric is the same as ASD18 but limited to people aged 18 and over at time of referral.
ASD18e Number of patients aged 0 to 17 with an open "suspected autism" referral in the month, that has been open for at least 13 weeks, receiving a first appointment after more than 13 weeks is a new metric. This metric is the same as ASD18a but limited to people aged under 18 at time of referral
ASD18f Number of patients aged 0 to 17 with an open "suspected autism" referral in the month, that has been open for at least 13 weeks, that have not had a care contact appointment recorded is a new metric. This metric is the same as ASD18b but limited to people aged under 18 at time of referral
ASD18g Number of patients aged 18 and over with an open "suspected autism" referral in the month, that has been open for at least 13 weeks, receiving a first appointment after more than 13 weeks is a new metric. This metric is the same as ASD18a but limited to people aged 18 and over at time of referral.
ASD18h Number of patients aged 18 and over with an open "suspected autism" referral in the month, that has been open for at least 13 weeks, that have not had a care contact appointment recorded is a new metric. This metric is the same as ASD18b but limited to people aged 18 and over at time of referral
ASD19a Proportion of patients with an open 'suspected autism' referral in the month, that has been open for at least 13 weeks, receiving a first appointment after more than 13 weeks is a new metric.  This is the new waiting time measure which is calculated from ASD16a and ASD18a (ASD18a divided by ASD16a).
ASD19b Proportion of patients with an open 'suspected autism' referral in the month, that has been open for at least 13 weeks, that have not had a care contact appointment recorded is a new metric.  This is the new waiting time measure which is calculated from ASD16a and ASD18b (ASD18b divided by ASD16a).
ASD19c Proportion of patients aged 0 to 17 with an open "suspected autism" referral in the month, that has been open for at least 13 weeks, receiving a first appointment in 13 weeks or less is a new metric. This metric is the same as ASD19 but limited to people aged under 18 at time of referral.
ASD19d Proportion of patients aged 18 and over with an open "suspected autism" referral in the month, that has been open for at least 13 weeks, receiving a first appointment in 13 weeks or less is a new metric. This metric is the same as ASD19 but limited to people aged 18 and over at time of referral.
ASD19e  Proportion of patients aged 0 to 17 with an open "suspected autism" referral in the month, that has been open for at least 13 weeks, receiving a first appointment after more than 13 weeks is a new metric. This metric is the same as ASD19a but limited to people aged under 18 at time of referral.
ASD19f Proportion of patients aged 0 to 17 with an open "suspected autism" referral in the month, that has been open for at least 13 weeks, that have not had a care contact appointment recorded is a new metric. This metric is the same as ASD19b but limited to people aged under 18 at time of referral.
ASD19g Proportion of patients aged 18 and over with an open "suspected autism" referral in the month, that has been open for at least 13 weeks, receiving a first appointment after more than 13 weeks is a new metric. This metric is the same as ASD19a but limited to people aged 18 and over at time of referral.
ASD19h Proportion of patients aged 18 and over with an open "suspected autism" referral in the month, that has been open for at least 13 weeks, that have not had a care contact appointment recorded is a new metric. This metric is the same as ASD19b but limited to people aged 18 and over at time of referral.

 


Impact of change

This table shows the average impact of the revised methodology in the published metrics affected using data from April 2022 – March 2023.

METRIC England CCG or sub ICB location - GP practice or residence Provider
ASD11 -30% -21% -34%
ASD11a -35% -27% -34%
ASD11b -21% -20% -31%
ASD12 0% 0% 0%
ASD12a 0% 0% 0%
ASD12b 0% 0% 0%
ASD13 0% 0% 0%
ASD13a 0% 0% 0%
ASD13b 0% 0% 0%
ASD14 -8% -9% -11%
ASD14a -8% -10% -11%
ASD14b -8% -9% -11%
ASD16 -22% -16% -32%
ASD16a -24% -18% -37%
ASD16b -26% -21% 32%
ASD16c -30% -24% -37%
ASD16d -15% -16% -29%
ASD16e -16% -18% -33%
ASD17 0% 0% 0%
ASD17a 0% 0% 0%
ASD17b 0% 0% 0%
ASD18 -28% -22% -35%
ASD18a -24% -17% -25%
ASD18b -27% -22% -41%
ASD18c -37% -26% -34%
ASD18d -12% -19% -27%
ASD18e -29% -20% -24%
ASD18f -34% -32% -44%
ASD18g -11% -12% -20%
ASD18h -19% -21% -37%
ASD19 -5% 16% 0%
ASD19a 0% 2% 55%
ASD19b -4% -6% -22%
ASD19c -11% 43% 0%
ASD19d 5% 22% -8%
ASD19e 1% 8% 16%
ASD19f -6% -12% -25%
ASD19g 7% 14% 40%
ASD19h -3% -5% -24%
ASD20 0% 0% 0%
ASD20a 0% 0% 0%
ASD20b 0% 0% 0%
ASD21 0% 0% 0%
ASD21a 0% 0% 0%
ASD21b 0% 0% 0%
ASD23 0% 0% 0%
ASD23a 0% 0% 0%
ASD23b 0% 0% 0%
ASD24 0% 0% 0%
ASD24a 0% 0% 0%
ASD24b 0% 0% 0%

 


Timing

The first publication to be affected by this change will be the September 2023 release, which covers autism data in the period from April 2022 – June 2023.


Further information

Questions and feedback on the publication are welcomed and should be sent to [email protected] or alternatively call 0300 303 5678.

Last edited: 31 August 2023 11:14 am